This article was updated on 13 January 2015 to take into account more recent claimant count statistics from the DWP.
Working age claimants hold the balance of power in enough marginal seats to potentially decide who governs Britain at the next election, and yet they are treated by politicians with such contempt that you might imagine they had no vote at all. Could that all be about to change?
As the tables at the bottom of this article show, if just one in four more working age claimants had voted Labour at the last election, Labour would have been the largest party.
It would have taken an even smaller increase in support from claimants for the Conservatives to win outright victory.
And at the last election the Conservatives took 36.1% of the vote, whilst Labout took 29%. If the polls are correct and this election is a much closer run race, then the votes of working age claimants could be even more crucial.
So why don’t politicians worry about deriding sick and disabled claimants or threatening huge cuts to working age benefits?
Most people believe that the reasons pensioners benefits remain untouched in the current austerity programme are because, firstly, there are a lot of pensioners and, secondly, their age group turns out to vote in large numbers.
In fact, turnout at last general election by age was 44% for 18-24 year olds, whilst it was 76% for those aged 65 or over.
At May 2013 there were 12.9 million state pension claimants, so that’s a lot of very committed voters.
But there are also 5.2 million working age benefits claimants in Britain and many of these are sick or disabled. For example, 3.26 million receive DLA whilst 2.15 million get ESA, with some getting both benefits. Around 5 million claimants get housing benefit.
By comparison, there are around 6 million trades union members in Britain.
We have no idea how many working age claimants vote, particularly those who are sick and disabled, because nobody cares enough to find out. But it seems likely that turnout at the last election was relatively low amongst sick and disabled voters simply because many saw themselves as having very little to choose between the three major parties.
At the 2015 general election the picture may be dramatically different, however.
Many claimants will always despise Labour for their anti-claimant rhetoric, for creating the work capability assessment and for introducing private sector companies like Unum and Atos into the benefits system.
But following 5 years of coalition savagery, hatred and impoverishment, and with chancellor George Osborne undertaking to cut a further £12 billion mainly from working age benefits, many may also believe that another five years of coalition or Tory rule will represent a virtual – or actual – death sentence for them.
Under those circumstances, if despair does not disenfranchise them entirely, claimants may turn out to vote Labour in unprecedented numbers, holding their noses whilst they do so.
If claimants and representative bodies work conspicuously and effectively to get the claimant vote out in marginal seats, the 2015 election could mark a turning point in the way that politicians regard them. Jeers and mockery may turn to the same grudging fear with which pensioners are regarded by many politicians.
And after the next election, fear of newly assertive claimants might even be sufficient to force whichever party is in power to pass legislation giving disabled people the same protection against prejudice and hatred that members of ethnic minorities have.
With the press and politicians finally forced to end the rabble rousing and hate campaigns, the world could look a very different place.
Or are we just dreaming?
Labour target seats
Labour needed 68 more seats to win an outright majority at the last election - these are the seats they came closest to winning.
Consitutency | Party | Votes needed | Working age claimants |
North Warwickshire | Con | 54 | 6640 |
Thurrock | Con | 92 | 10270 |
Hendon | Con | 106 | 8710 |
Cardiff North | Con | 194 | 5540 |
Sherwood | Con | 214 | 8210 |
Norwich South | Lib Dem | 310 | 9260 |
Stockton South | Con | 332 | 8140 |
Lancaster & Fleetwood | Con | 333 | 6840 |
Bradford East | Lib Dem | 365 | 14860 |
Broxtowe | Con | 389 | 6010 |
Amber Valley | Con | 536 | 7360 |
Woverhampton South West | Con | 691 | 8910 |
Waveney | Con | 769 | 9730 |
Carlisle | Con | 853 | 7690 |
Morecambe & Lunesdale | Con | 866 | 8650 |
Weaver Vale | Con | 991 | 7780 |
Lincoln | Con | 1058 | 10440 |
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport | Con | 1149 | 13060 |
Brighton, Pavilion | Green | 1252 | 7490 |
Stroud | Con | 1299 | 5370 |
Brighton, Kemptown | Con | 1328 | 9390 |
Brent Central | Lib Dem | 1345 | 14650 |
Bedford | Con | 1353 | 9330 |
Watford | Con | 1425 | 6990 |
Arfon | Plaid | 1455 | 4940 |
Dewsbury | Con | 1526 | 9750 |
Warrington South | Con | 1553 | 6650 |
Pudsey | Con | 1569 | 4890 |
Enfield North | Con | 1692 | 10010 |
Burnley | Lib Dem | 1818 | 10490 |
Dundee East | SNP | 1821 | 8530 |
Hove | Con | 1868 | 7700 |
Manchester, Withington | Lib Dem | 1894 | 7970 |
Corby | Con | 1895 | 8730 |
Northampton North | Con | 1936 | 7060 |
Brentford & Isleworth | Con | 1958 | 8320 |
Hastings & Rye | Con | 1993 | 12190 |
Halesowen & Rowley Regis | Con | 2023 | 8050 |
Nuneaton | Con | 2069 | 8290 |
Ipswich | Con | 2079 | 10210 |
Blackpool North & Cleveleys | Con | 2150 | 10200 |
East Dunbartonshire | Lib Dem | 2184 | 4180 |
Bury North | Con | 2243 | 7960 |
Gloucester | Con | 2420 | 10300 |
Wirral West | Con | 2436 | 5090 |
Kingswood | Con | 2445 | 5090 |
Erewash | Con | 2501 | 8030 |
City of Chester | Con | 2583 | 6930 |
Croydon Central | Con | 2879 | 10220 |
Keighley | Con | 2940 | 7770 |
Worcester | Con | 2982 | 7640 |
Birmingham, Yardley | Lib Dem | 3002 | 13780 |
Cannock Chase | Con | 3195 | 8500 |
Harrow East | Con | 3403 | 6240 |
Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire | Con | 3243 | 6710 |
Argyll & Bute | Lib Dem | 3431 | 6660 |
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr | Plaid | 3481 | 6370 |
Warwick & Leamington | Con | 3513 | 5510 |
South Swindon | Con | 3544 | 8000 |
Stevenage | Con | 3578 | 7340 |
Pendle | Con | 3585 | 8750 |
Ealing Central & Acton | Con | 3716 | 8460 |
Loughborough | Con | 3744 | 6080 |
Edinburgh West | Lib Dem | 3803 | 6140 |
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale | Con | 4194 | 6350 |
Vale of Glamorgan | Con | 4307 | 8880 |
Elmet & Rothwell | Con | 4521 | 5190 |
Norwich North | Con | 4677 | 7330 |
Conservative target seats
The Conservatives needed an extra 20 seats to win outright at the last election.
Constituency | Party | Votes needed | Working age claimants |
Hampstead & Kilburn | Labour | 42 | 9730 |
Bolton West | Labour | 92 | 7960 |
Solihull | Lib Dem | 175 | 5110 |
Southampton, Itchen | Labour | 192 | 9110 |
Mid Dorset & North Poole | Lib Dem | 269 | 3750 |
Wirral South | Labour | 531 | 5200 |
Derby North | Labour | 613 | 8440 |
Dudley North | Labour | 649 | 9500 |
Great Grimsby | Labour | 714 | 11700 |
Wells | Lib Dem | 800 | 6710 |
Telford | Labour | 978 | 10450 |
Walsall North | Labour | 990 | 12510 |
Morley & Outwood | Labour | 1101 | 6780 |
Birmingham, Edgbaston | Labour | 1274 | 10470 |
St Austell & Newquay | Lib Dem | 1312 | 9020 |
Halifax | Labour | 1472 | 11550 |
Newcastle-under-Lyme | Labour | 1552 | 7290 |
Sutton & Cheam | Lib Dem | 1608 | 4780 |
Wakefield | Labour | 1613 | 9290 |
Middlesborough South & East Cleveland | Labour | 1677 | 9930 |
Somerton & Frome | Lib Dem | 1817 | 5590 |
Lib Dem target seats
Below is a selection of seats the Lib Dems came close to winning at the last election.
Constituency | Party | Votes needed | Working age claimants |
Camborne & Redruth | Con | 66 | 8210 |
Oldham East & Saddleworth | Labour | 103 | 10100 |
Sheffield Central | Labour | 165 | 9920 |
Oxford West & Abingdon | Con | 176 | 4110 |
Ashfield | Labour | 192 | 10870 |
Edinburgh South | Labour | 316 | 5120 |
Truro & Falmouth | Con | 435 | 6230 |
Swansea West | Labour | 504 | 8590 |
Newton Abbot | Con | 523 | 5910 |
Chesterfield | Labour | 549 | 9620 |
Kingston-upon-Hull North | Labour | 641 | 12140 |
Rochdale | Labour | 889 | 13740 |
Harrogate & Knaresborough | Con | 1039 | 4580 |
Montgomeryshire | Con | 1184 | 4290 |
Watford | Labour | 1425 | 6990 |
Newport East | Labour | 1650 | 8800 |
Edinburgh North & Leith | Labour | 1724 | 8600 |
St Albans | Con | 2305 | 4600 |
Hereford & South Herefordshire | Con | 2481 | 6460 |
Weston-Super-Mare | Con | 2691 | 9630 |
Torridge & West Devon | Con | 2957 | 6700 |
Comments
all children-better education-bette r schools no-
higher levels of education costs-yes
children-health increased-no-ch ild poverty increased -yes
child welfare increased-no- decrease in welfare spending
Disabled welfare increased-no- welfare staff and money cut
improved standard of living-no -food, clothing, everyday essentials have all increased above the retail price and cpi price index-another tory invention
wage increases are below the average inflation over the last five years. and ofc the works and pensions Atos debacle which is still ongoing
healthcare - increased waiting time to see doctors and specialists longer treatment times
average worker- increased income tax benefit-yes
increase tax payment yes-vat-kind of cancels out income tax benefit-increas ed cost of living over 5 years greater than wage increase-
increased rail fares above inflation and wages, increased vat for new vehicles/ sevicing road tax etc.
all the heath issues above-yes
unemployed-welfare-wrag zero hours contracts, wrag. jobseekers allowance-sanct ions-have they improved people into full time employment- no-
pensioners earning state pensions -increases- kept up with the cost of living- no-winter fuel allowance increased no-
health as above
welfare -no -cuts to welfare budget
So who have benefited
Obviously those 'earning' enough to pay only 45 pence in the pound income tax and all those who earn above the 40 pence in the pound
here is why as a 20 pence in the pound tax payer -you get tax relief of 20p to £ for any pension that you contribute to. A person earning over the 45p to £ tax claims 45p for every pound that they pay to pension fund to a limit set by the revenue same applies to the 40p
tax pay coalition are in it together and it`s poo
Also they have said zero hours contracts will end under them so we will have to judge them if they get elected.
However, even if all us benefits recipients do actually vote at the next General Election, it will make little difference to the result if many of us vote for minority parties that would not have changed the outcomes in the marginal constituencies at the last election that Beneifts and Work have highlighted. So, even if some of us fervently support parties that have at present a minority support and at the next election are unlikely, barring miracles, to get actually elected, this will not effect the first and most important change that we need, which is to get rid of the Tories. Notice that Benefits and Work show tables that indicate how close Labour or Liberal came to wresting seats from the Tory victors. Tories will always vote, and vote Tory, so, unless the Labour or, as applicable, Liberal candidates in these constituencies are given more voting support, the Tories will again win power. And, if Scotland leaves the Union later this year, they are more likely to do so, because the overwhelming Scottish anti-Tory electorate will no longer be available to counter the Tory bias in the rest of the UK.
Especially correct is the fact you refer to ''people listen to the lies spouted out by the other three parties'' and I would add to that comment the fact that those same lies are also spouted by my pet hate, the newspaper Barons.
Lets be honest, the newspapers have painted UKIP as a bunch of looney losers and will continue to do so as the majority of newspapers are owned by Tories and are supporters of the Tory Party.
Lest anyone forget.... those newspapers who paint UKIP in this fashion are the same newspapers that paint all of us on welfare benefits as good for nothing scroungers, too lazy to work, and always willing to accept handouts and commit criminal acts.
When you read the newspapers its important to think what is behind the headlines in my opinion.
Although the Labour Party was rightly despised for doing much of the preliminary dirty work which the Tories have continued, and with a vengeance, it must be remembered that it was led by that nasty piece of work, Gordon Brown and his interminable "work" mantra, and that they initiated the ending of Incapacity Benefit and the reassessment for ESA, among other retributive measures. But, he is now gone, and as Benefits and Work have suggested, if it becomes known that we claimants decide to ditch our apathy regarding voting at all, and instead use the substantial voting power that is latent within us, the change that will be effected in the political map of Britain will mean that politicians, even those elected to power, will be forced to take note and moderate their policies.
There is one potential problem, however, and that is the effect on the balance of the resulting political power in England and Wales should Scotland vote for Independence. The Tories won 306 seats at the last election. They needed 326 for an overall majority. If Scotland becomes independent, the 59 less seats (from 650) means a majority is reached with 296 seats. Thus, the Tories' 306 seats would have sufficed.
Do the same with your PPC for the UKIP.
cancel ATOS and remove esa totally and rely on GP reports, and if they agree to take out the civil servants who have fully supported IDS and have degraded the fact to be ill or sick as lazy and need to work attitude, and publicly flog them or make them live in a wheelchairs for months, with no pint of remission perhaps that party will win the next election because they would get my vote
I just hope everyone who has any kind of memory at all will bear that in mind come election time.
I am no Tory lover, I have never and will never vote Tory, I am working class and I have done my bit for 40 years before getting ill but....... do I feel I can trust Labour to help and support me in future?
Quite simply no, I cannot trust them.
Until the Labour Party start saying things and doing things that demonstrate they are what they used to be, what they started out as being, or something of a modern day equivalent to thast Party, they will not get mine or my families votes.
I am not commenting to be argumentative, just giving my personal view thats all.