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I'm afraid it is impossible to say, it will primarily depend on the level of detail you provide in the ESA50 and how well it is supported by any evidence you have available. A secondary factor is whether a face to face assessment will cause unreasonable physical or mental harm to the claimant but you will need up to date medical evidence to support this.
Be aware that there have been changes to the DWP guidance since he was last assessed so make sure that you use the latest versions of our ESA Claim guides to help you complete the form.
www.benefitsandwork.co.uk/help-for-claimants/esa1 Gordon