The Politico website has claimed that a bill to cut disability benefits will be introduced to parliament next week, allowing the first vote to take place as early as 30 June.
Whilst we have no way of knowing if this is correct, Labour are definitely running out of time if they want the bill to have completed all its commons stages by the start of the Summer recess on 22 July.
So this seems a good point at which to look at how Labour may try to rush the bill through parliament with minimum scrutiny and how campaigners can be prepared for this.
First reading
The forthcoming bill has to go through several stages before it becomes law.
The initial step is the first reading, which simply involves the billās title being read out in the commons. It is usually published immediately afterwards, so we will get our first look at the details.
The bill will very probably only introduce the changes to universal credit (UC) payment rates for new claims, due to take effect from 6 April 2026, and the 4-point rule for personal independence payment (PIP) due to start in November 2026.
Second reading
The second reading is where the bill is debated by the whole House of Commons and a vote takes place. The second reading doesnāt usually happen until at least two weekends have elapsed after the first reading.
So, if Labour publish the bill anywhere between Monday 16 and Friday 20 June, the second reading could take place as early as Monday 30 June.
The bill could be voted down at this stage if enough Labour MPs rebel and opposition parties unite against it.
If not, it will carry on to the committee stage.
Meanwhile, Labour whips will be targeting any rebels they think they can bully or bribe into supporting the government and also leaning on anyone they think might be at risk of going over to the rebels.
Bear in mind that some Labour MPs may be thinking of rebelling but are waiting until the third reading, in order to give the government a chance to make its case before finally deciding. So even if this first vote is won by the government, all is not lost.
Committee stage
The committee stage can be a lengthy affair.
A āpublic bill committeeā of 17 MPs take evidence from the public and from experts, before debating and selecting amendments to be put before the whole House. The make up of the committee reflects that of the House, so there would be a Labour majority.
After a public bill committee there is a report stage for the whole house to look at what has been done in committee and vote on amendments.
Straight after the report stage, the bill goes to its third reading and a vote.
However, in this case, the suspicion is that Labour will opt for a ācommittee of the whole houseā. This means that all MPs get to take part in the discussion of amendments and vote on them. But, no evidence from the public or experts is allowed and the whole process will be completed in a single day.
There is also no report stage, so the bill goes straight to its third reading after committee.
So a committee of the whole house is an effective way to rush a bill through and prevent MPs hearing from disability charities, think tanks, disabled peopleās organisations and claimants themselves.
Third reading
Once the bill has completed its report stage, if there is one, a third reading takes place.
This is the final opportunity for MPs to either pass or reject the bill. No further amendments are allowed, so MPs must either accept the whole bill or reject it all.
Depending on how the proceedings have gone, some rebels may decide to back down and support the government or some loyalists may decide that they have not been convinced by the government and will now join the rebels.
House of Lords
Ordinarily, after the third reading, the bill would go to the House of Lords where amendments may be made and the bill is then passed back to the Commons, who can either accept or reject them. The bill may then go back and forth between the two houses until agreement is reached. This can take many months.
The House of Lords is made up of:
- 286 Conservative
- 212 Labour
- 181 crossbench
- 77 Liberal Democrat
Plus around 90 non-affiliated peers, bishops and smaller parties.
So, Labour does not have a majority in the Lords and, if the Conservatives decide to oppose the bill, the Lords could delay its passage for a considerable period, whilst pressuring the Commons to accept amendments.
However, there is a strong possibility that Labour will try to have this bill certified as a money bill.
If Labour succeed in doing so, then the House of Lords can hold up the bill for a maximum of a month and pass amendments. But the government can simply ignore the amendments and, at the end of the one month period, the bill is sent for Royal Assent and becomes law. So, in most cases, the Lords do not suggest amendments to a money bill and it passes without opposition.
Getting certified as a money bill
Ultimately, it isnāt up to Labour to decide if a bill can be certified as a money bill. This is a decision for the Speaker of the House, advised by officials.
And the Speaker wonāt give a ruling until the bill has completed the committee and, if there is one, report stage. This is because amendments to the bill could change its nature and mean that it could no longer be certified as a money bill.
The introduction of the 4-point rule for PIP can probably be passed off as being solely about public finance, as its primary aim is to reduce the cost of disability benefits.
But there is certainly an argument that the changes to UC are primarily about social policy rather than money, because the aim is to reduce the alleged āperverse incentiveā for people to claim benefits rather than work. Itās not a money-saving provision: it simply moves cash from disabled claimants to those who are capable of work, in order to effect ābehavioural changeā.
Whatever the Speaker decides, however, that is the end of the matter and there is no way of challenging the decision, even in court.
What Labour hopes
Labour is very much hoping that the bill will pass all its Commons stages before the Summer recess starts on 22 July.
But they will also be hoping that it will be able to bypass effective scrutiny from the House of Lords, otherwise the process may drag on into the Autumn, when the Office for Budget responsibility will publish its assessment of how many disabled claimants are likely to find work.
What can campaigners do?
A great deal depends on what happens over the next few weeks and campaigners should be ready to begin another round of emails, letters and protests at very short notice.
Once we know what is in the bill, people will want to contact their MP and tell them how they hope they will vote.
It will still also be worth contacting local councillors and asking them to speak urgently to their MP.
And anything that can be got into local media and social media encouraging people to contact their MPs has to be worth doing.
In addition, if you have any connection with disability charities, right now is the time to urge them to prepare a mail (or email) shot to MPs. Because there is a real chance the process will be over very quickly, without them having any opportunity to give evidence at committee stage.
Finally, it will definitely be worth sending messages of support and encouragement to MPs who vote against the bill at second reading, if it does go on to committee stage, because they will be getting a lot of flak from some quarters. And if your MP voted in favour of the bill, it will still be worth politely trying to persuade them to change their mind, as they may well be wavering.
Please note: we are very far from being experts on parliamentary procedure, so if you spot any errors in this article, please do contact us and we will correct them.
