Most commentators have assumed that the Conservatives would always vote in favour of anything that resembled a benefits cut. But there now seems to be a possibility that the Tories are planning to support Labour rebels and vote against Labour’s Green Paper.
On 18 May, Conservative MP Helen Whately told the Standard: “Labour’s plans dodge the difficult decisions on welfare, leave more people out of work than they put in and will hit some of the nation’s poorest people.
“The sickness benefits bill is spiralling out of control and these rushed reforms will make things worse, not better.
“These plans are cruel, careless and clumsy. And it seems that even some of the people closest to Reeves agree with us, not her.”
What makes this total condemnation of the Green Paper particularly noteworthy is that Whately is the Conservative shadow secretary for work and pensions. It seems unlikely that she would have been so outspoken in her criticism without party approval.
It is clear that the rebellion on Labour’s back benches has been growing in the two months since the Green Paper was published.
On 1 April, the Labour List website published the names of 27 MPs who said they would rebel against the government and 15 more who had expressed opposition to the Green Paper.
On 8 May, 42 Labour MPs wrote to the prime minister to say the cuts were impossible to support.
On 15 May, ITV reported that 50 Labour MPs were set to rebel, including the 42 who had signed the original letter. 100 MPs had also signed a private letter to Starmer urging the government to delay the changes and rethink its proposals. At least 6 MPs signed both letters.
Which suggests that somewhere in the region of 130 Labour MPs oppose the cuts, though there is no suggestion they would all vote against them.
The labour leadership are said to be considering a number of ways to buy off the rebels. These include changes to the winter fuel payment means-test, changes to the two child limit or changes to the benefits cap.
The idea will be to tell rebel MPs that the government doesn’t have the cash help these groups and also to drop its Green Paper cuts.
Whether this is a pitch that will work, remains to be seen.
But there seems to be at least a possibility that the Conservatives are now positioning themselves to take advantage of Labour’s disarray.
