Two reports released this week have dealt another blow to Labour’s Pathways To Work Green Paper. A report by the Resolution Foundation finds that, at best, little more than a tenth of those facing poverty as a result of welfare cuts are likely to find work. And a report by Citizens Advice reveals that those claimants who do find work are still likely to be worse off than they were on benefits.
Resolution Foundation
The “No Workaround” report by the Resolution Foundation found that the government’s Green Paper proposals could boost employment by between 60,000 and 105,000 by the end of parliament.
However, the Green paper cuts are expected to push 250,000 people into poverty and 700,000 families into deeper poverty. So, even if the top end of the Foundation’s employment prediction is correct, and assuming that all those who find work were those threatened with poverty, it would still leave 845,000 in poverty.
Likewise, the Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that 370,000 current PIP claimants will lose their award as a result of the Green Paper. So, even if every one of the people who got a job was an ex-PIP recipient that would still mean that, at best, considerably more than two thirds of former PIP recipients would not find employment.
The Foundation suggests that help with employment should come earlier in this parliament and that anyone losing PIP should be given 6 months transitional protection to find work if they can.
But, in the end, there is no escaping the fact that the Green Paper proposals will dramatically deepen levels of poverty in the UK.
Citizens Advice
Rachel reeves has argued that “. . . our reforms, instead of pushing people into poverty, are going to get people into work. And we know that if you move from welfare into work, you are much less likely to be in poverty.”
However, according to the Citizens Advice report “Work won’t cut it”, this turns out not to be entirely true.
They have calculated that in many cases, people would see only a small increase in income by working full-time - and in some situations, they could actually end up worse off.
Their report goes on to argue that for many people with health conditions, full-time employment is not a realistic option. But moving into part-time work is more likely to result in a loss of income, and the financial impact is typically much greater. For example:
A single claimant losing PIP daily living and UC health would be £114 per month worse off if they worked full-time, and £359 per month worse off if they worked part-time for 20 hours per week.
A couple claimant where one partner loses PIP daily living and UC health, while the other remains in full-time employment, would only gain £112 a month if the partner that lost their benefits worked full-time. And they would be £272 per month worse off if the partner worked part-time for 20 hours per week.
Citizens Advice conclude that “Our findings undermine the government’s argument that people will be able to compensate for lost benefits income by taking up paid employment.”
So, even a successful employment programme will fail to offset the harm done to disabled claimants by the Green Paper. The only real beneficiary of the whole project is the Treasury, which will have somewhere in the region of £5 billion extra in its coffers.
Wealth tax
On a final note:
The number of billionaires in the UK has increased from 15 in 1990, to 156 in 2025.
Their combined wealth has risen from £65 billion to £619 billion.
The UK’s 50 richest families hold more wealth than 50% of population.
A 2% annual tax on wealth above £10 million would raise £24 billion a year.
And, instead of being plunged into poverty, or deeper poverty, those who paid it would scarcely notice it had gone.
You can read the Resolution Foundation report here.
You can read the Citizens Advice report here.
